The use of an actual default rate in the calculation of CVA overstates the observed value of the bond because it does not include a default risk premium associated with the timing uncertainty of possible default loss.
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The actual default probabilities, being historical in nature do not include the default risk premium associated with the uncertainty in the timing of the possible default loss. Thereby, it understates the CVA and overstates the value of the bond.
However, under the assumption of risk-neutrality, the risk premium is purely the expectation of possible loss computed with risk-neutral probabilities by using the quoted price. It is just the market-implied probability by showing that everything could be bought or sold as there was a single probability for everything. It is just taking the price into the equation and solving for the probability.